Solana CME Futures Lag Behind BTC and ETH Launches, but Context Matters

K33 Research pointed out that when factoring in market capitalization, Solana's futures volume appears more favorable.

Key Points:

• Solana's (SOL) futures debuted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Monday, recording a notional daily volume of $12.3 million and open interest of $7.8 million—significantly lower than the initial trading volumes of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) futures.
• However, when adjusted for market capitalization, SOL's first-day performance aligns more closely with BTC and ETH, according to K33 Research.
• Despite a bearish market, the introduction of CME SOL futures provides institutions with new tools to manage exposure to the token, noted Joshua Lim of FalconX.

If you weren’t paying close attention, you might have missed it: Solana's (SOL) futures quietly launched on Monday on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a key marketplace for U.S. institutions. Unlike the highly anticipated CME debuts of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), SOL’s introduction came with minimal fanfare.

On its first day, Solana (SOL) futures recorded a notional daily volume of $12.3 million and closed with $7.8 million in open interest—falling significantly short of the initial performances of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) futures, according to K33 Research.

For comparison, BTC futures launched in December 2017 with $102.7 million in first-day volume and $20.9 million in open interest, while ETH futures debuted in February 2021 with $31 million in volume and $20 million in open interest.

SOL’s struggles were compounded by declining speculative memecoin activity, broader bearish sentiment in the crypto market, and even a poorly received commercial. As a result, the token dropped around 10% from its weekend high, underperforming BTC and ETH, which fell 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively.

Although SOL’s futures debut appeared underwhelming in absolute terms, it was more proportionate to BTC’s and ETH’s first-day figures when adjusted for market capitalization, according to K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman. On Monday, Solana's market cap was approximately $65 billion—significantly smaller than ETH’s $200 billion and BTC’s $318 billion at the time of their CME launches.

K33 Research noted that Solana’s CME futures launch faced unfavorable timing, as market conditions significantly influence futures activity.

Bitcoin’s CME debut occurred at the height of the 2017 bull market when speculative enthusiasm was at its peak, while ETH futures launched during the early stages of the 2021 altcoin rally, boosted by Tesla’s BTC purchase announcement, which helped drive institutional participation.

In contrast, SOL futures began trading amid a bearish crypto market, with no major catalyst or hype to spark immediate demand. “It would appear that institutional demand for altcoins may be shallow, although SOL’s launch has come in a comparatively risk-off environment,” K33 analysts stated.

Derivatives trader Joshua Lim, global co-head of markets at FalconX, emphasized that despite muted first-day demand, the launch of CME’s SOL futures provides new tools for institutional investors to manage their Solana exposure. FalconX facilitated the first SOL futures block trade on CME in collaboration with financial services firm StoneX.

“There’s enthusiasm for this new CME product launch,” Lim stated in a Telegram message. He noted that liquid funds could now better manage their SOL holdings, including assets acquired from the FTX liquidation. Additionally, ETF issuers looking to introduce SOL-based products could start with CME futures-backed ETFs.

“People are overlooking the bigger picture with these CME products,” Lim said. “This is going to reshape how hedge funds access altcoins.”