New Canadian PM Carney Narrows Lead Against BTC Advocate Poilievre on Polymarket

Polymarket initially differed from traditional polls, which showed opposition leader Pierre Poilievre with a strong lead over Liberal candidate Mark Carney.

Key Takeaways:

• Carney’s Rising Odds: Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next federal election, up from 26% a month ago.
• Election Timeline: The next federal election is set for October 20, 2025, though a vote against the minority Liberal government could lead to an earlier election.
• Market Sentiment Shift: Carney’s surge in odds is linked to U.S. trade threats, as Canadians increasingly favor his business expertise and central banking experience.

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently secured leadership of the Liberal Party, has significantly boosted his odds of winning the next federal election, according to Polymarket bettors.

(Polymarket)

Carney's odds of winning the next Canadian election have risen to 49%, up from 26% a month ago, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's chances have dropped to 51% from 72% in February.

(Polymarket)

The next Canadian federal election is set for October 20, 2025.

However, under Canada’s Westminster system, an earlier election could be triggered if the opposition Conservatives and NDP unite to vote against the minority Liberal government in a confidence motion. This could happen after Parliament resumes from prorogation on March 24, a pause requested by Justin Trudeau on January 6 when he announced his resignation, pending the selection of a new Liberal leader.

Carney’s Rising Momentum

Mark Carney closing the gap on Pierre Poilievre in prediction markets—despite a lag between betting odds and polling—aligns with recent survey results. According to Nanos Research, the Conservatives now hold just a one-point lead over the Liberals, a sharp decline from their 16-point advantage a month ago.

Analysts attribute this dramatic shift to U.S. trade tensions, with polling data suggesting Canadians favor Carney’s business expertise and central banking background over his opponent’s platform.

This trend contrasts with last year’s U.S. election, where betting markets consistently favored Donald Trump, even as traditional media outlets suggested a different outlook. The eventual result was unsurprising to those following independent analysis.

Crypto on the Canadian Campaign Trail?

Cryptocurrency does not appear to be a major issue in the potential election. Poilievre has previously expressed pro-blockchain views and holds a Canada-issued BTC ETF, according to disclosures. However, most campaign discussions have centered on trade policy rather than digital assets.

Carney, who has taken a mixed or skeptical stance on crypto in the past—particularly during his tenure as Bank of England governor—has yet to address the topic in his new role as Liberal leader.