Indicators Suggest XRP’s Bull Run May Be Over; Bulls Need to Clear $3 Level: Technical Analysis

XRP is struggling to gain momentum despite the SEC-related news, with key indicators signaling a potential bearish trend reversal.

Key Points:

• XRP surged over 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday following SEC-related news, but momentum has since weakened, keeping prices rangebound between $2.30 and $2.50.

• A bearish shift in momentum is signaled by a red bar in XRP’s three-line break chart, while the MACD histogram suggests strengthening downside momentum.

• Bollinger Bands are forming a pattern similar to previous bull market peaks, which historically preceded downturns.

"You're not bullish enough!" an enthusiastic XRP supporter declared on X last week after Ripple—which leverages XRP for cross-border transactions—revealed that the SEC had dropped its case against the company.

Many in the community share this excitement, and for good reason. The resolution of this long-standing legal battle removes a major barrier that held XRP back during the 2021 bull run, while ETF speculation and hopes of XRP being included in the U.S. strategic reserve further fuel optimism.

However, XRP’s recent price action fails to match this optimism, as key momentum indicators signal a potential bearish trend reversal, suggesting a significant price decline may be ahead.

Last Wednesday, XRP jumped over 11% to $2.59 following the SEC news, but bullish momentum has since faded. Prices have remained rangebound between $2.30 and $2.50, despite expectations that reciprocal trade tariffs from former President Donald Trump on April 2 might be less severe than anticipated.

Three-Line Break Chart Signals Bearish Reversal

The three-line break chart, which focuses on price movements while filtering out short-term noise, is flashing a bearish reversal for XRP. This chart helps identify trend shifts based on actual market action rather than arbitrary trading rules.

• The chart consists of vertical bars (green for bullish, red for bearish).

• A bullish reversal occurs when a green bar surpasses the highest point of the last three red bars.

• Conversely, a bearish reversal is confirmed when a new red bar falls below the lowest point of the previous three green bars.

In XRP’s case, a red bar appeared early this month on the weekly timeframe and has remained intact despite the SEC news, signaling persistent downside pressure. Since this chart aggregates weekly price data, it suggests a broader shift in market sentiment rather than short-term fluctuations.

XRP's three-line break chart, weekly. (TradingView)

The appearance of a new red bar signals a bullish-to-bearish shift in momentum, mirroring patterns seen at the start of extended bear markets in 2021 and early 2018.

MACD Signals Strengthening Downside Momentum

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, which measures trend strength and potential reversals, is forming deeper bars below the zero line on the weekly chart. This indicates that bearish momentum is intensifying, reinforcing the potential for further price declines.

The same indicator turned positive in November, leading to a price surge from $1 to over $3.

Additionally, the 5-week and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have formed a bearish crossover, indicating that downward momentum is gaining strength and the path of least resistance favors further declines.

XRP's weekly candlesticks chart with the MACD. (TradingView)

Bollinger Bands Indicate Potential Downturn

The Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility by placing bands two standard deviations above and below XRP's 20-week SMA, have expanded following the sharp price rally in late 2024 and early 2025.

Historically, such band widening has preceded price declines, as seen in mid-2021 and early 2018, suggesting that XRP could be at risk of a similar downturn.

XRP's weekly chart with Bollinger bands. (TradingView)

When Could XRP Turn Bullish?

A decisive breakout above $3, the high recorded on March 2, would invalidate the bearish setup. This move would break the lower highs pattern, signaling a renewed bullish outlook and potentially paving the way for further upside momentum.

Some analysts predict that XRP could climb to $10 by the end of the decade, reflecting long-term bullish expectations for the token.

XRP's daily chart. (TradingView)