Standard Chartered Bank has reiterated its bullish stance on Bitcoin, forecasting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency will climb to $135,000 by the third quarter of 2025. This projection underscores the bank’s view that Bitcoin’s rally remains resilient, fueled by sustained demand from institutional investors and corporations — despite concerns surrounding the post-halving market dynamics.

Halving Cycle and Market Sentiment

The most recent Bitcoin halving, completed in April 2024, cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, halvings have triggered supply shocks that catalyze price rallies, though often followed by periods of volatility as miners adjust to reduced revenues.

However, Standard Chartered suggests that the second half of 2025 may diverge from this typical pattern. The bank’s research team points to robust buying activity from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have collectively attracted more than $60 billion in inflows globally since their approval in the U.S. and parts of Europe. These ETFs are providing both retail and institutional investors with streamlined, regulated access to Bitcoin exposure, intensifying demand.

Corporate Accumulation Drives Supply Squeeze

Alongside ETF inflows, corporate treasuries continue to embrace Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Firms like MicroStrategy, which now holds over 226,000 BTC, and newer adopters in Asia and Latin America, are tightening circulating supply. This corporate buying trend is contributing to what analysts describe as a structural supply squeeze.

Standard Chartered believes this twin demand from ETFs and corporates will outweigh any selling pressure linked to miner capitulation or profit-taking, stabilizing Bitcoin’s ascent through late 2025.

A Structural Shift in Bitcoin’s Market Dynamics

What differentiates this cycle, according to the bank, is the institutionalization of Bitcoin demand. Unlike in prior halvings, where retail speculation played a dominant role, this cycle sees large-scale, longer-term holders shaping market flows. Standard Chartered’s model also factors in a weakening dollar and geopolitical uncertainty as tailwinds for Bitcoin’s potential rise toward $135K.

If Standard Chartered’s forecast holds, Bitcoin could break through psychological resistance levels, setting fresh all-time highs by Q3 2025. This would reinforce Bitcoin’s growing role as both a macro-hedge and a strategic corporate asset, marking a new era in crypto’s integration into the global financial system.