1. Trend Model Turns Bullish

On June 29, 10x Research’s Bitcoin trend model flipped bullish—signaling a 60% probability of further upward momentum over the next two months. Historically, this pattern has coincided with a typical price increase of around 20%.

2. September Target: $133K

With Bitcoin trading near $111,200 today (July 10), a 20% gain would take it close to $133,000—the projected price for September.

3. Why the Upside May Be Underestimated

• Options data reveal traders are mainly buying call options, indicating a belief in further upside and likely underexposure to bullish positions.

• This "underpositioning" is a driver: with fewer bearish bets open, upward moves can have outsized effects.

4. Catalysts Ahead

1. Upcoming US CPI Report (July 15) – Markets expect benign inflation data, which may reduce concerns over Fed tightening and boost crypto risk assets .

2. US Crypto Week – A series of events that could result in new policy clarity and regulatory tailwinds.

3. ETF Inflows – Spot Bitcoin ETF investments remain robust, with $215.7 million in inflows noted on a recent Wednesday.

5. Historical Context: Is Q3 Truly Weak?

Traditionally, Q3 has been Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, averaging a +5.8% return since 2013. This time could be different, with strong ETF momentum and policy developments potentially reshaping the historical pattern.

6. Wider Market Sentiment

• Option-market projections from platforms like Santiment suggest a 10% chance Bitcoin reaches $140K by end of September, with a 69% likelihood of toppling its current ATH (~$111,970) by July 31.

• Sentiment is currently bullish—but analysts caution that euphoric conditions can lead to short-term corrections.

7. Potential Risks

• Extreme greed often precedes pullbacks.

• Macro factors—like sudden rate hikes or geopolitical tensions—could interrupt the rally, as noted by other analysts.

According to 10x Research, there’s a 60% chance that Bitcoin will climb roughly 20% to $133,000 by September, driven by bullish trends, underexposed positioning, ETF flows, and benign macro outlooks. While Q3 has historically been weak, this cycle’s unique catalysts could defy the norm. However, traders should prepare for volatility if sentiment reaches euphoric levels or macro hurdles emerge.